2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Falcons, Chargers see fortunes rise; Packers fall back

The NFL season has officially hit the halfway mark, and some things went exactly as expected. The Chiefs and Bills sit atop the AFC standings, and the Lions lead the way in the NFC.

But the Commanders running on the Lions' heels? The Chargers and Broncos hanging on the edge of the AFC playoff picture? And the Cardinals in first place in the NFC West?

There certainly have been more than a few first-half surprises. Here's what the playoff picture looks like as the second half begins:

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (7-1)

The Lions didn't play their best game of the year on either side of the ball on Sunday, but they still beat the Packers convincingly. In fact, they've now beaten both of their closest NFC North competitors over the past three weeks. They remain the strongest and deepest team in the conference and when they're clicking they're going to be hard for anyone to beat — especially if the NFC playoffs end up running through Detroit.

Playoff probability: 98%

2. Washington Commanders (7-2)           

There really shouldn't be any doubt that the Commanders are for real and so is rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. The only thing keeping them from being mentioned as a true Super Bowl contender is that their schedule hasn't been all that tough. That changes the next two weeks with games against the Steelers and at Philadelphia. On Sunday, they let the awful Giants hang around to the end. They won't get away with that against better teams.

Playoff probability: 85%

3. Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

Kirk Cousins has now thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in the last two weeks, and if he's dealing like that, the Falcons have to be taken seriously. They have a huge opportunity with games at New Orleans and at Denver before heading into their bye week. Keep an eye on the hip injury to receiver Drake London, though. That's one weapon Cousins can't afford to lose.

Playoff probability: 88%

4. Arizona Cardinals (5-4)

They've won three in a row now and four of five after cruising past the Chicago Bears on Sunday. They are in a very tightly packed division, though, and haven't shown that they're capable of getting much separation. Their offense is showing some signs of life, but it was another struggle for quarterback Kyler Murray. They're going to need more out of him to outrun the 49ers, Seahawks and Rams.

Playoff probability: 49%

5. Minnesota Vikings (6-2)

Their win over the Colts on Sunday night was ugly and unimpressive, but they sure did need it. They had lost two straight after their surprising 5-0 start, and it’s going to be hard enough for them to keep pace with the Lions and Packers in the NFC North without digging themselves into a hole. They remain in the thick of the race now with a three-game road trip to Jacksonville, Tennessee and Chicago coming up.

Playoff probability: 86%

6. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

They have turned their season around with four straight wins, and they've done it by riding their powerful rushing attack. They racked up 237 yards on the ground in a win over the Jaguars on Sunday and they've averaged 196 rushing yards during their winning streak. That's always been how the Eagles have been at their best during the Nick Sirianni era, and it's why they bought Saquon Barkley. If they keep this up, they're a real Super Bowl threat.

Playoff probability: 85%

7. Green Bay Packers (6-3)

Quarterback Jordan Love clearly wasn't 100 percent on Sunday, but he wasn't terrible against the Lions. It was just an empty 273 passing yards because he couldn't get the Packers into the end zone until the waning minutes of the game. His groin injury is obviously bothering him and the Packers really need him healthy in the second half. Good thing for all of them, Green Bay is on its bye next week.

Playoff probability: 60%

On the outside looking in: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) have lost two straight and three of four heading into their Monday night game in Kansas City. After that, they're home for the 49ers before getting a much-needed bye. … The Chicago Bears (4-4) responded to their Hail Mary loss in Washington in the worst possible way — with a no-show in Arizona. And they desperately needed cushion because they've got a killer second-half schedule. … The San Francisco 49ers (4-4) didn't lose any ground on their bye week. Their fortunes will still turn on when/if RB Christian McCaffrey returns. … The Los Angeles Rams (4-4) stunned the Seahawks in overtime and have now won three straight games. And while their offense isn't exactly clicking, with receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back they feel complete. … Boy did the Seattle Seahawks (4-5) need that game against the Rams. Now they are reeling, limping into their bye week having lost five of their last six. … Jerry Jones hasn't given up hope for his Dallas Cowboys (3-5) yet but he's got to be close, right? They've lost three straight and now both QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb are hurt.

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AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)

They've still got their division at more than an arm's length and can keep them there with a win on Monday night against a battered Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. They're also helped out by a schedule that, in the next four games, has them playing at home against the Broncos and Raiders and at Carolina. Their Nov. 17 game in Buffalo is a huge test, but might mean a heck of a lot more to the Bills.

Playoff probability: 99%

2. Buffalo Bills (7-2)

The NFL might as well crown them division champions now, because they are turning the AFC East into a shellacking. Any hope of a close-ish race evaporated when they held off the Dolphins on Sunday. They now lead the division by four games with eight games to go. No, it's not over, but … yeah, it kind of is.

Playoff probability: 98%

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

They rolled into their bye week riding three straight wins, including two under newly installed quarterback Russell Wilson. And that's good, because they're going to need all the confidence and momentum they can get. Their next two games are at the surprising Commanders and then home against the juggernaut Ravens. The Steelers are good. We're all about to find out just how good.

Playoff probability: 86%

4. Houston Texans (6-3)

After a particularly ugly loss to the Jets on Thursday night, they've suddenly lost two of their last three, heading into a game next Sunday night against the Detroit Lions. The good news is they're still undefeated in a soft division and shouldn't have any trouble winning the AFC South. But they might want to lock it up before they come off their bye in mid-December with three games against the Dolphins, Chiefs and Ravens.

Playoff probability: 94%

5. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

If their surprising loss in Cleveland last week was a wake-up call, then this game was the sign that they're wide awake now. They hammered an inferior Broncos team and lit up their strong defense. It's exactly what championship contenders do to teams they're supposed to beat. They have a division game at home against the Bengals next week, but everyone's eyes are on their Nov. 17 showdown in Pittsburgh.,

Playoff probability: 93%

6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)

Don't look now, but quarterback Justin Herbert might be heating up. This was his second straight game with two touchdown passes and at least 279 yards. They're also now 3-1 in the last four, though to be fair their wins have come against the Broncos, Saints and Browns. They get one more soft spot in the schedule next week (vs. the Titans) before they find out what they're made of with a four-game stretch against the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons and Chiefs.

Playoff probability: 78%

7. Denver Broncos (5-4)

The plucky Broncos, who had won five of six and were starting to believe they were a playoff team, got pounded back into reality on Sunday when they were blown out by the Ravens. They were generally outclassed, which wasn't a surprise. They could easily dismiss it as just one bad game, except they're in Kansas City next week and then play at home against the Falcons. They're about to find out who they really are.

Playoff probability: 48%

On the outside looking in:

The Indianapolis Colts (4-5) didn’t get much of a jolt on offense from their quarterback switch to Joe Flacco. They’ll need one with games against the Bills, Jets and Lions coming up. … The Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) are buried a bit in a real tough division, but they've got the talent to be a wild-card team, especially if their offense can stay in the gear it was in when they routed the Raiders on Sunday. … Can you consider the New York Jets (3-6) a playoff contender? They think so after they beat the Texans on Thursday night. They may need to go 6-1, at least, but their schedule is surprisingly soft the rest of the way.

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Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.