NFC Championship Game key matchup: Saquon Barkley vs. Commanders' porous run D

The Washington Commanders have exceeded everyone's expectations this season, by far. They've done more in the first year of a new regime, playing behind a rookie quarterback, than anyone thought was possible. In fact, there's really only one thing they haven't been able to accomplish:

They haven't figured out a way to consistently stop the run on defense.  

And that's a big problem since Saquon Barkley is standing in their way of a trip to Super Bowl LIX.

Barkley, of course, has been a problem for everyone this season, but he figures to be an enormous issue for the Commanders (14-5) and their 30th-ranked rushing defense when they face the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday in Philadelphia. It's not just that Barkley is coming off a 205-yard performance in a divisional playoff game against the Los Angeles Rams, or even that he's averaged more than 160 rushing yards over his past four games.

It's also that he's already run all over the Commanders twice this season, totaling 296 yards on 5.4 yards per carry in two games against them this season — hardly surprising considering only two teams gave up more this season than the 137.5 yards per game Washington gave up on the ground.

"This really is the worst possible matchup for them," said an NFC scout who has seen both teams recently. "They don't get a lot of push up front. It's not the best tackling team. And it hasn't gotten better, even with (defensive tackle) Jonathan Allen returning in December.

"A team with a strong offensive line and good running back — and the Eagles obviously have both — can really dictate the pace of the game. That defense can be pushed around."

That, of course, is what the Eagles do best. They were the No. 2 rushing team in the NFL this season, averaging 179.3 yards per game, thanks to an incredible season by Barkley (2,005 yards in 16 games) and a lot of help from their dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts (630 rushing yards in 15 games). That kind of 1-2 punch puts defenses on their heels and causes would-be tacklers to hesitate on the snap.

And when that happens, Barkley in particular can really make defenses pay, just like he did last weekend in a 28-22 win over the Rams when he averaged 7.9 yards per carry and ripped off touchdown runs of 62 and 78 yards. And that's not far off what he did in two games against the Commanders during the regular season, when he had touchdown runs of 23, 39 and 68 yards.

Running behind the NFL's best offensive line, huge holes were created for Barkley. And when that happens, more often than not, he's just gone.

"That Rams defense is better against the run, better up front than Washington," the scout said. "And look what Barkley did to them (205 and 255 yards in two games this season). The numbers weren't as big against the Commanders, but a lot of the holes he ran through were."

Stopping Barkley might be impossible if his line clears more holes like that. He's averaged 129.4 rushing yards per game this season, including the playoffs, on a ridiculous 5.9 yards per carry. He's topped 100 yards in 13 of 18 games, including the last four, eight of the last nine and 11 of the last 13. In the past four games, he's averaged 160.3 yards.

The Commanders, meanwhile, gave up 4.8 yards per carry this year — fourth worst in the NFL. Some of their issues were because they lost Allen to a torn pectoral muscle in Week 6. But even in the four games since his return, they've still given up 144.5 rushing yards per game. That included 201 in Detroit last Saturday in Washington's 45-31 win, where Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 105 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 tries.

Clearly, the Lions would've been better off leaning on Gibbs more. The Eagles, though, won't make that mistake with Barkley, who has rushed the ball a career-high 396 times this season — or 22 times per game. And don't forget, they can always run Hurts, too. He ran for 80 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries vs. the Commanders this season. And despite being slowed by injuries (and the snow) he had 70 yards and one 44-yard touchdown on just seven carries last Sunday against the Rams.

All of that sure seems like a big advantage for the Eagles — and an enormous problem for the Commanders to have to overcome.

"Obviously, Washington can overcome that. The Rams almost did. And the Commanders just beat a Lions team that they really couldn't stop on the ground either," the scout said. "But it just puts enormous pressure on other parts of their game — particularly on Jayden Daniels. 

"Maybe Daniels has another big game. Maybe he can carry them to the Super Bowl. Or maybe Jalen Hurts struggles again the Eagles are one-dimensional, which has happened to them at times. But the bottom line is if the Commanders can't stop Barkley, winning this game is going to be really hard."

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.