Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's college football Week 13 study guide

This past Saturday was another electric day in college football. 

Top ranked Oregon narrowly escaped Camp Randall with a three-point win over unranked Wisconsin, No. 3 Texas in a dog fight against unranked Arkansas for nearly four quarters, No. 7 BYU fell to a 3-6 Kansas squad, No. 6 Tennessee fell to No. 11 Georgia, No. 20 Kansas State lost to unranked Arizona State, and an unranked Florida took down No. 21 LSU in Gainesville. 

With weekends like this past one, lengthy discussions ensue between myself and the fine people at FOX Sports every week as we plan our production for Big Noon Kickoff. Every Sunday night, I reflect on what transpired the day before, and send out a lengthy email to producers, researchers, and my colleagues on air about my thoughts on what happened, as well as what's notable for the upcoming week.     

I've decided to peel back the curtain and share those thoughts with you all, because everyone should rejoice in the splendor that is college football. 

This week, 11 ranked teams will be on the road against unranked opponents, along with three ranked vs. ranked matchups taking place. We'll get into those shortly. Nine of the top 10 teams in the AP poll play this weekend, and 23 of the top 25 have action as well. 

Let's dive into my thoughts and games to watch for in Week 13.

CFP Hierarchy

When breaking down how many teams from each conference will make the big dance, it becomes really clear how hard it still is to include all the good teams. In my opinion, the ACC and Big 12 will only see the conference champions make it, there will only be one Group of 5 team (Boise State, Tulane, or Army), Notre Dame controls its destiny to get in, and the Big Ten and SEC will comprise the remaining eight or nine teams. Oregon has punched its ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game, while Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana all still have shots at joining the Ducks in Indianapolis — and at least two of them will get into the CFP. And then when you look at the SEC, there's Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas A&M— but which team will be left out? The next few weeks are going to be fascinating. 

Analyzing Indiana

What is an "acceptable loss" on Saturday for Indiana in regards to CFP purposes? Is a 10-point loss okay? What about a 14-point one? Is a 17-point one too large? Will it matter considering they would still be 11-1 without any wins over anyone with a winning record, and can't win any résumé comparison? This is all anyone cares about this week. Does Indiana have to win to make the CFP, or is there a "close loss" scenario? Or will the committee ultimately just say the Hoosiers are better than any other team being compared to them. 

In the 21 regular season Top 5 games in the CFP era, only two have seen a spread greater than ten points— No. 2 Ohio State was a 17.5-point favorite vs No. 5 Notre Dame in 2022 (Buckeyes won 21-10), and No. 1 Alabama was a 14-point favorite vs No. 4 LSU in 2018 (Alabama won 29-0). 

Just how good is Texas?

Texas is ranked third in the AP poll and third in the CFP rankings, but has anyone actually dived into their résumé? They have zero wins over teams currently ranked, they got beat by 15 points at home against Georgia, and have recorded ugly wins at Vandy (27-24) and Arkansas (20-10). If the Longhorns are upset in College Station in two weeks, would they be the odd SEC team out as I laid out earlier? It almost feels like Texas is third because the committee thought, "who the heck else could be No. 3?" 

Scariest teams in the CFP

Which team would you most not want to play in the CFP? Is it Ohio State? Is it Georgia based on what we saw Saturday night, especially when considering how they looked in the second half? Is it Ole Miss and that defensive front? There are no wrong answers, but I think there are a lot of answers which could be correct. The Buckeyes have a strength of record that ranks third best in the country while Georgia has one that ranks second. The Bulldogs strength of schedule is also the best in FBS, which makes me think they're primed for another title run. But don't count out the Rebels who held them to 10 points in a 28-10 victory at home. 

Here come the Buffs

Is Colorado the Big 12’s Indiana?  CU is 6-1 in Big 12 play, and four of their six wins have come against teams that are currently in the bottom six of the conference standings (Cincinnati- 10th, Arizona- 13th, UCF- 14th, Utah- 15th). The other two wins came vs Baylor and Texas Tech, who are each 4-3 and 6-4 overall. The Buffs missed current co-leaders BYU and co-third place teams Arizona State and Iowa State on the slate. After this week’s game vs Kansas, CU has last place Oklahoma State to finish the regular season. 

Indiana’s seven conference wins have come over Washington (8th), Michigan (T-9th), UCLA (12th), Michigan State (T-14th), Nebraska (T-14th), Northwestern (T-14th), and Maryland (17th). Besides the Huskies at 6-5, none of those teams have a winning record. The Hoosiers end the regular season with last-place Purdue next week. Pretty crazy how similar these two programs' paths have been.

Mountain West Madness

There's a huge game in the race for Mountain West title this week, as Colorado State— who is undefeated in conference play— goes to Fresno State where the Rams are a slight underdog. UNLV is a big fan of Fresno this week, as a loss from Jay Norvell's squad would all but set up a rematch against Boise State in the Mountain West title game. That is of course, if the Rebels survive a Friday trip to San Jose State. The Broncos take on Wyoming this Friday and will clinch a berth in the conference title game with a win, or if UNLV loses.

Heisman Hunter

How cool is it that we have the potential Heisman winner playing in an NFL stadium this week? The one in which the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes play in. The Buffs take on the Jayhawks in Arrowhead Stadium, and are just 2.5-point favorites for what it's worth. Is the Heisman Travis Hunter's to lose? If Colorado loses at Kansas and finishes 9-3, is it still a done deal? He may be a bit different than a quarterback and not necessarily be tied to a W-L record, but it'll be interesting to see nonetheless. 

In the last 30 years, there have been only four individual seasons of a player recording three or more receiving touchdowns and three or more interceptions in the FBS. Hunter has two of those seasons, with Aqib Talib and Champ Bailey being the others.

Huskers continue to struggle

We’re now up to NINE straight losses for Nebraska when the Huskers enter a game with five wins. The last three have all been one-score losses, with two coming on the road. Matt Rhule's squad is a slight home favorite on Saturday over Wisconsin before closing their season out at Iowa. Their last win when entering a game with five wins came in 2016. Will they get it done?

Rare spot for Houston

Since the start of the 1998 season (BCS/CFP Era), only four teams have been shut out twice in a season and made a bowl game. If Houston wins out vs Baylor and BYU, the Cougars will join this list. The 2023 Iowa team was shut out 31-0 by Penn State and then 26-0 by Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game prior to being shut out for a third time in the bowl game, 35-0 to Tennessee. In 2009, Minnesota was shut out 20-0 by Penn State and 12-0 by Iowa before losing 14-13 to Iowa State in the Insight Bowl. Then you have the 2009 Wyoming team that was shut out three times— once in non-conference play by Colorado and then twice in Mountain West play before winning the New Mexico Bowl. And finally, 1998 Ole Miss was shut out 17-0 by Auburn and 34-0 by Arkansas and then won the Independence Bowl. This year's Houston squad lost 20-0 to Iowa State and 34-0 to Cincinnati, but have won three of their last five to sit at 4-6. C'mon Cougars, you can do it!

ACC Rivalry Week… West Coast edition!

The Big Game is this week! And it'll be the first time these two will play as members of the ACC. I bet if you walked around various campuses of other ACC schools and asked students if they knew what the Stanford-Cal rivalry was called, you'd hear a bunch of hilarious answers. Regardless, this rivalry dates all the way back to 1892 and has had some incredible games throughout its history. The Cardinal lead the all-time series 65-10-1, and won 11 straight from 2011 to 2018. But the Bears have won three of the last four meetings. Be sure to watch out for Jadyn Ott, who would be in the conversation as one of the most exciting running backs in the country if he hadn't missed games due to injury. 

Can the Black Knights do it?

It's Week 13 of the college football season and Army is still undefeated. But this Saturday, they'll have their toughest test of the year as they'll take on No. 6 Notre Dame. They're currently 14.5-point road underdogs against the Irish. 

But If Army wins out, which would mean a win over Notre Dame and Tulane, they’ll be the Group of Five rep in the CFP, right? What they would have done is better than what Ashton Jeanty and Co. have accomplished, right? Of course I know Notre Dame is likely going to win the game, but it's fun to dream, right? Bryson Daily will need to be at his absolute best, as he's just one of two quarterbacks in FBS to have over 1,000 yards rushing this season. I'm pulling for the Black Knights this week. 

Auburn needs to win

I mentioned this last week ahead of their matchup against UL Monroe, but now that they got the victory against the Warhawks— I want to remind everyone of what's at stake here for Auburn. As the Tigers' head coach, Hugh Freeze is 4-10 in SEC play, 5–12 vs Power Conference opponents and 0-10 vs teams that finished with (or in the case of 2024) have a winning record. Their last two games will come against none other than No. 15 A&M and No. 7 Alabama. They're only 2.5-point underdogs against the Aggies, so if they lose that game— it'll likely be an ugly Iron Bowl. Auburn has lost their last four Bowl game appearances, with their last such win coming in 2018. However, I wouldn’t count the Tigers out this week against a shorthanded A&M squad.

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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