2024 NFL Playoff Picture: NFC West, South coming down to the wire

The battles for the NFC South and NFC West divisions look like they might come down to the final week of the NFL season. And those are probably also the only two playoff spots still up for grabs.

That's because the AFC playoff field is almost all set, and five of the seven spots in the NFC are virtually secure with two weeks left in the regular season. But the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are tied for first place in the NFC South, while the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are only separated by just a game in the NFC West.

And since it's highly unlikely either division will send a wild-card team to the postseason, the battles for those division championships are winners-take-all. Both could be decided as soon as next weekend, but there's a chance the fight for both playoff berths could go down to the final game.

Here is the entire NFL playoff picture through the Sunday games in Week 16.

(x-clinched playoff berth)

AFC

x-1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)

Another week, another one-score win for the Chiefs, who shook off the pesky Houston Texans to win their fifth straight game and preserve their edge for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. They close out the season on the road against Pittsburgh and Denver, and neither of those games figure to be easy. But the Chiefs have built up enough of a cushion that they'll probably be able to hold on to the top seed the rest of the way.

Playoff probability: 100%

x-2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)

Josh Allen's MVP train might have been derailed a little by a subpar performance against the New England Patriots, but the Bills still managed to rally to victory, and that's what's important. They have a good chance to win out with games against the Jets and Patriots remaining, but they'd need the Chiefs to lose out in order to take over the No. 1 seed. So, they'll likely have to settle for No. 2 and perhaps just one home game in frigid and possibly snowy Orchard Park. Nobody wants to play them there.

Playoff probability: 100%                                              

x-3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5)

That's two tough losses in a row for the Steelers, in Philadelphia last weekend and then in Baltimore on Saturday. The one to the Ravens, though, could really be costly. It allowed Baltimore to pull into a virtual tie in the AFC North. And while the Steelers currently have the slight edge in the tiebreaker (using common opponents), they are at a big disadvantage in the schedule. They finish the season with two games at home, but against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals. They might need to win both to win the division and host a playoff game.

Playoff probability: 100%

x-4. Houston Texans (9-6)

They actually played well against the Chiefs on Saturday, but this is not a team that's cruising toward the postseason. They are just 4-5 over the past two months and haven't looked particularly good at any point during those nine games. And now they're without promising receiver Tank Dell following his gruesome knee injury. They get the Ravens at home next week, then finish up at the Titans. There isn't a lot of time left for them to get things right.

Playoff probability: 100%

x-5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)

They were pretty excited to clinch a playoff berth Saturday with their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. That game might also turn out to be the one that tips the balance in the AFC North toward them. They're tied for first at the moment, though slightly behind the Steelers in tiebreakers. But they finish off the season against the struggling Houston Texans and the awful Cleveland Browns, while the Steelers have to play the Chiefs and Bengals. Unless someone pulls off a surprise somewhere, the Ravens are in great position to steal the division title.

Playoff probability: 100%

6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)

They had lost three of four and were trailing the Broncos 21-10 at home when, finally, everything turned around for the Chargers. Their dominant second half and impressive comeback against a very tough Denver team virtually assures they will play in the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh's first season. With Harbaugh and quarterback Justin Herbert, they could prove to be a tough out in the postseason.

Playoff probability: 95%

7. Denver Broncos (9-6)

Blowing their first-half lead in Los Angeles against the Chargers was the worst moment for Sean Payton's upstart team in quite a while. It snapped Denver's four-game winning streak and halted a lot of the momentum it had built up during a 9-3 stretch. On the bright side, rookie quarterback Bo Nix had another strong game. But the Broncos' top-10 defense looked as vulnerable as it has all season. And that's what's really going to have to carry them in the playoffs.

Playoff probability: 76%

On the outside looking in: The Indianapolis Colts (7-8) looked like a team that wanted to make a late charge at the playoffs when they built a 38-7 lead in the third quarter against the Titans. Then they almost blew it. They did hold on to win, 38-30, so they're still alive. And while they're two games back with two to go, those games are very winnable, against the Giants and Jaguars. … A win over the 49ers kept the Miami Dolphins (7-8) alive, but they're going to have to win out on the road in the cold (at Cleveland, at the New York Jets) and get lots of help to have a shot. … The Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) are going to kick themselves over some of the games they lost to keep them out of the playoffs. But not yet, because after dispatching the Browns with ease, they are still clinging to their hopes. A lot has to break right, though, for them to get in.

NFC

x-1. Detroit Lions (13-2)

They are so battered by injuries right now, but this is still a deep, good and powerful team. They flexed their muscles on Sunday with a convincing win over the Chicago Bears while watching the Philadelphia Eagles basically blow their shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC. There's still a chance that the top seed comes down to their season finale against the surprising Vikings. But at least that game is in Detroit. And they still look like the significantly better team.

Playoff probability: 100%

x-2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)

What an absolutely crushing loss they suffered in Washington on Sunday. They could easily write it off to losing quarterback Jalen Hurts early in the game to a concussion. But they still have a lot to be alarmed about. They blew a 21-7 lead and couldn't take advantage of five Commanders turnovers. And worst of all, their top-ranked defense was torched by the Commanders in the fourth quarter when Jayden Daniels threw three touchdown passes. The bullies became the bullied when the game was on the line, and now the top seed in the NFC might be out of reach.

Playoff probability: 100%

3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6) They really did not look good as they beat the Jets on a cold and windy day at the Meadowlands. And they probably should be a little worried that their offense has been a no-show the past two weeks, totaling just 31 points. But they have won four straight games now and eight of 10 overall, giving them the advantage over an NFC West field that is starting to collapse beneath them. They finish at home against the eliminated Cardinals and Seahawks, who are one game behind them. They probably don't want the division title to come down to that last game.

Playoff probability: 82%

4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)

They made a daring move in the middle of a playoff push, benching slumping veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr., and it paid off. Penix avoided the big mistake, got help from an opportunistic defense and blew out the New York Giants. That seemed to wake the slumping Falcons up and, when the Bucs lost in Dallas on Sunday night, it gave them back the top spot in the NFC South. They're tied with two games to go, but own the tie-breaker because they swept the Bucs this season. They play at Washington on Sunday and have to be careful not to give the lead and momentum back.

Playoff probability: 54%

x-5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)

Seriously, doubt Sam Darnold and the Vikings at your own risk at this point. Their win in Seattle on Sunday wasn't easy, especially with the Seahawks clinging to their playoff hopes. But they pulled it off thanks to Darnold, who threw three touchdown passes, including one to Justin Jefferson late in the fourth quarter. The win kept them alive for the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, both of which might come down to their Week 18 game in Detroit.

Playoff probability: 100%

6. Green Bay Packers (10-4)

They're not going to win the NFC North, but they are going to make the playoffs, so at this point they're just jockeying for position and making sure they stay hot down the stretch. They'll have a great chance to do that at frigid Lambeau Field on Monday night against the 5-9 New Orleans Saints. The Packers have beaten much better teams while winning four of their past five games and eight of 10. They'll get a much bigger test next Sunday in Minnesota.

Playoff probability: 99%

7. Washington Commanders (10-5)         

Look at what rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels did on Sunday, putting on a one-man show against the Philadelphia Eagles with three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter against the NFL's top-ranked defense. He had five touchdowns overall in Washington's wild win, which prevented Philly from clinching the NFC East. Even bigger for the Commanders, they now know they can play with anybody. Daniels' display also signaled to the NFL that he is primed for the playoff spotlight. Rookie quarterbacks usually have their limits in the postseason. Maybe this one doesn't.

Playoff probability: 95%

On the outside looking in: The Seattle Seahawks (8-7) were so close to knocking off the Vikings and staying in a virtual tie with the Rams atop the NFC West. But now they're one game back and just hoping everything comes down to their Week 18 game against the Rams in Los Angeles. … Losing to the eliminated Cowboys on Sunday night was shocking and costly for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7). It snapped their four-game winning streak and handed the division lead to the Falcons. Technically they're tied, but they lost twice to the Falcons this season. The good news for them is they finish the season at home vs. the Panthers and Saints, but they can't afford to lose either one.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

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